When Confidence Meets Markets — A Friend’s Lesson in Financial Discipline
A few months ago, I was catching up with a friend — a senior executive in a large company. Sharp, respected, and someone who could spot a financial discrepancy from a mile away. Naturally, he managed his own investments. “I’ve been in finance for 20 years,” he said, smiling. “I know what I’m doing.” As we talked, I asked him how his portfolio was performing. “Pretty good,” he said confidently. “A few stocks doubled — can’t complain.” But when he pulled up his records, the story changed. For every stock that had doubled, there were two that had quietly sunk. Buys made on tips , trends , and gut feeling — all sitting in the red. It wasn’t lack of knowledge. It was overconfidence — the silent assumption that I’m always right. He had fallen into the same trap many individual investors do — remembering the winners and conveniently forgetting the losers. That evening, we discussed something simple yet powerful — the difference between being financially knowledgeabl...